Early Monday morning, Ed Yardeni, the president of Yardeni Research, wrote in a note to clients that he was adding Venezuela “to our list of troubling developments” that could make for a volatile start to 2026.
By late morning, Yardeni — like others — was watching the stock market largely shrug off the weekend’s developments that saw the United States capture and arrest Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.
“The positive response in stocks is fascinating,” Yardeni wrote. “This suggests that the markets are not particularly concerned. The market seems to be focusing on the positive consequences – peace through health. Perhaps this is what the markets are encouraging.”
Wall Street is still assessing the consequences of the US incursion into Venezuela. But at least to begin with, investors are looking ahead to focus on the themes that have dominated the markets through 2025 – and even before – with AI trading returning to rally mode and an imminent focus on the Federal Reserve and corporate earnings.
Asked how the current climate would have an impact on his holdings, the portfolio manager of Fondi Gabelli John Belton holdings said not much.
“I think that’s why the market is like that, quote unquote, shrugging it off – this situation – at least as given what we know today,” he told Yahoo Finance. “It’s not a big impact on the company’s fundamentals … it’s not a big part of the global economy. I think it’s pretty simple.”
Ben Emons, founder and CIO of FedWatch Advisors, suggested that investors may even be treating the moment as a “risk on” event.
“2026 begins as a geopolitical year, which could act as a risk catalyst in subsequent periods,” Emons wrote in a note to clients. “It reminds me of 2016, when regime shifts like Brexit and Trump’s first election led to significant rallies in commodities, emerging markets, and domestic equities.”
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Not everyone is convinced that the market reaction will remain calm. Academy Securities’ Peter Tchir said the bigger risk could come from China, the biggest buyer of Venezuela’s oil.
Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, but decades of mismanagement, lack of investment, and US sanctions have reduced its production to less than 1% of global supply.
“So far, the administration has only talked about reparations and obtaining oil rights back to American companies. Expect those actions to be fought, in the courts as China must protect their own interests or face not only economic loss, but also loss of face,” Tchir wrote to clients.