CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — English phrases once annoyed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro so much that he urged his State of the Union address audience to phase out words like skatepark and fashion.
But as the White House now ponders whether the US military should strike Venezuela, Maduro is embracing English, singing John Lennon’s Imagine, advocating for peace and dancing to a remix of his latest English phrase, “Le War, Yes Peace.”
While his turnaround is seen as a sign of desperation by supporters of Venezuela’s political opposition, whose leaders have repeatedly told their backers in Washington that the threat of military action would break Maduro’s inner circle, months of pressure have yet to produce defections or a government transition.
Loyalty vs. punishment
Behind this ability to stay in power is a system that punishes disloyal associates harshly and allows loyal ministers, judges, military leaders and other officials to enrich themselves.
“The Bolivarian Revolution has a remarkable capacity: the capacity for cohesion in the face of external pressure,” said Ronal Rodríguez, a researcher at the Venezuela Observatory at Colombia’s Universidad del Rosario, referring to the political movement, also known as Chavismo, that Maduro inherited from the late President Hugo Chávez. “When pressure comes from outside, they manage to unite, defend and protect themselves.”
Underlying the principle of loyalty or punishment are networks of corruption blessed by Chávez and Maduro that give the loyalist permission to get richer. The policy has thwarted previous efforts to oust Maduro and helped him and his close associates lift economic sanctions, obtain a US presidential pardon and claim an electoral victory they lost badly.
Rodríguez explained that prison and torture can be part of the punishment, which is usually harsher for accused wrongdoers with military affiliation. The strategy was crucial for the authoritarian Maduro to maintain control of the military, which he allowed to traffic in drugs, oil, wildlife and a myriad of goods in exchange for anti-coup barracks.
“This has been a very effective tool because Chavismo has always been able to eliminate those actors who at some point try to rise up, and has been able to expose corrupt practices from all kinds of actors,” Rodríguez said.
The military relies on Maduro
Venezuela’s political opposition, led by Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, relied on the support of the military to oust Maduro after credible evidence showed he lost the 2024 presidential election. But Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and other military leaders stood by Maduro, as they did in 2019 during a barracks uprising by a group of soldiers who swore allegiance to Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader recognized at the time by the first Trump administration as the legitimate leader of Venezuela.
Since returning to office, US President Donald Trump has increased the pressure on Maduro and his allies, including by doubling to $50 million the reward for information leading to his arrest on narco-terrorism charges. An indictment in 2020 accused Maduro of running the Cartel de los Soles, which the US State Department on Monday designated as a foreign terrorist organization.
Maduro denies the charges.
On Saturday, Trump said the airspace “over and around” the South American country should be considered “closed in its entirety.” Maduro’s government responded by accusing Trump of making a “colonial threat”, and rallied supporters behind what it called an attack on national sovereignty.
Suspected drug boats bombed
In early September, the US military began blowing up boats that the Trump administration accused of carrying drugs in the Caribbean Sea and the eastern Pacific Ocean, killing more than 80 people.
Many, including Maduro himself, see the US military moves as an effort to end Chavismo’s power. The opposition only added to this perception by reneging on its promise to remove Maduro from office.
Two weeks after the first boat attack, Chavismo’s loyalty was directly tested when Maduro’s pilot rejected efforts by the United States to join a plot to capture the Venezuelan leader and hand him over to face charges.
“We Venezuelans are cut from a different cloth,” Bitner Villegas, a member of the elite presidential honor guard, wrote to a retired American officer who was trying to recruit him. “The last thing we are traitors.”
On Tuesday, supporters of the ruling party marched in Caracas to demonstrate what they described as the “anti-imperialist spirit” of Chavismo. The march ended in a ceremony in which Maduro held up a bejeweled sword that belonged to South American independence hero Simón Bolívar and led those in attendance, including Cabinet ministers, to swear in the name of God to defend peace and freedom.
Susan Shirk, a research professor at the University of California, San Diego, said that authoritarian leaders have a “fetish for unity” and like public displays of loyalty to prevent a split between leadership and social turmoil. She explained that the division could lead people to believe that the risk of protest has decreased.
‘We must remain united’
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the designation of the Cartel de los Soles provides Trump with additional options for dealing with Maduro. Hegseth did not provide details on those options, but administration officials have indicated they have trouble seeing a situation in which Maduro remains in power as an acceptable end game.
David Smilde, a Tulane University professor who has been studying Venezuela for more than three decades, said only people who don’t understand Chavismo think that a show of force will cause a change in government.
“This is exactly the kind of thing that brings them together,” Smilde said of the deployment of US military forces. “They also talk about the $50 million reward, but what military officer in their right mind would trust the US government? And more broadly, if the entire premise of the operation is that the Venezuelan armed forces are a drug cartel, what motivation could they possibly have to turn on Maduro and participate in regime change?”
Maduro’s entire presidency was characterized by a political, social and economic crisis that pushed millions into poverty and led more than 7.7 million people to emigrate. The crisis also caused support for the ruling party to fall throughout the country.
Loyal to keeping his inner circle intact despite growing US pressure, Maduro has also sought to maintain his depleted base through long-established practices that include organizing marches in the capital.
Zenaida Quintero, a school janitor, saw the country dismantled under Maduro’s watch, with thick memories of the great lack of food that Venezuelans experienced in the late 2010s. Her support for Maduro, however, did not decrease, and her commitment came down to one fact: He was chosen by Chávez to lead the Bolivarian Revolution.
Quintero, 60, said Maduro, like Chávez, will not abandon his supporters.
“I trust him,” Quintero said of Maduro. “We must remain united. We must defend ourselves.”