The expressions of unbridled power do not come more clearly than the abduction of a sitting president from his capital in the dead of night.
President Donald Trump demonstrated in a 74-word post on social media that he can act decisively, suddenly and perhaps recklessly, in pursuit of his varied and varied foreign policy goals, with little regard for precedent, consequence or it seems, international law.
The operation to take the President of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro and his wife from their heavily guarded place in Caracas to – presumably –
But here is a grave exception: Maduro is a head of state, whose nation is prey to various ongoing political goals of the United States. No matter what the charges say, this will always feel political.
The successive White Houses wanted to remove the left-wing regime of Venezuela, but autocratic and sometimes violent – both for the fight against drug trafficking, or for their oil, or for regional alignment.
Trump’s second term promoted ending Maduro’s role as the linchpin of a vast regional narco-trafficking network as key to his rationale. But they ran into a paradox when they suggested that Maduro leave power alone: He could not be both the pivot and a man who could move on his role at the drop of a hat.
The evidence that Maduro was on the regional tree was also not as substantial as the White House had hoped. Yes, Venezuela has undoubtedly enabled drug trafficking from its airspace and shores, with the world’s top cocaine producer Colombia just over the border. But the Mexican and Colombian cartels were bigger players – but seemed to attract less US military focus.
At the heart of this action is Washington’s wider ambitions for greater control of his close ones abroad, for what they called an updated Monroe Doctrine.
A flexible Venezuela is better for US hydrocarbon markets, but most importantly it provides a place where millions of Venezuelans currently seeking refuge in the US can return.
But as it is, what comes next is not clear – or if there is an immediate successor, ready to sum up the same risk of kidnapping. It also remains to be seen if this ignites fury against the Americans, or leads to days of celebration at the end of a dictatorship that mismanaged the Venezuelan economy into free fall.
Maduro’s departure is a victory for Trump, but chaos or collapse in his wake would be a cascading defeat. The plan for “what’s next” is more important than the shocking display of the United States over the skies of Caracas early Saturday morning.
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