The Soviet Union spent more than 40 years trying to achieve what has just been handed to Vladimir Putin on a plate. During the Cold War, the main goal of the Kremlin was to divide the Atlantic Alliance (NATO) by turning America and Europe against each other.
Every crisis over the security of West Berlin, from the Soviet ultimatum for the West to leave the city in 1958 to the building of the Wall in 1961, was designed to open cracks in NATO. “To make the West scream, I will press on Berlin,” as Nikita Khrushchev, then the Soviet leader, said in 1959.
His successor, Leonid Brezhnev, deployed a new generation of nuclear missiles – the SS20s – in the satellite states of central Europe precisely to divide the West over how to respond.
All those efforts failed. America and Europe knew exactly what the Soviets were up to and, although they differed and argued, the allies never allowed the Kremlin the satisfaction of seeing them fall apart.
Today, thanks to Donald Trump, Putin can enjoy that show. He spent 25 years following the old Soviet policy of trying to divide the West. Once again, he denounced NATO for allegedly trying to “encircle” or “terrorize” Russia, as if the very existence of the Atlantic Alliance was a threat to world peace, and as if the sight of sovereign countries choosing to join its ranks somehow justified his aggression.
Now, suddenly, the gap he has always longed for is opening before his eyes.
The US president has not only claimed the sovereign territory of a NATO ally, Denmark, but has threatened to use force to get his way. On Saturday, Trump deliberately escalated the confrontation by ordering punitive tariffs against no less than eight allies, including Great Britain, for the crime of saying what should be common cause: that the future status of Greenland is a matter for the inhabitants of the island and the government of Denmark.
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On Monday, Trump went further by sending a threatening message to another ally, Norway. In a leaked letter to the Norwegian Prime Minister, Jonas Store, Trump said that since he was denied the Nobel Peace Prize he “no longer feels[s] an obligation to think purely of peace, although it will always be predominant”, adding that Denmark had no “ownership right” over Greenland and that America’s “Complete and Total control” of the island was essential for global security.
Faced with looming US tariffs and constant threats, the EU is preparing to retaliate by invoking its “anti-coercion instrument” to impose €93bn (£80.6bn) of levies on US exports. This extraordinary measure, which has never been used before, should be deployed not against China or any other adversary, but against the superpower that has guaranteed Europe’s security for almost 80 years.
Sir Keir Starmer has so far failed to impose additional British tariffs on US exports, but the EU’s promised retaliation shows that both sides are now doing their best to harm each other.
Starmer condemned Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on America’s allies – Tolga Akmen/EPA/Shutterstock
Putin can only sit back and enjoy the view. And even if this dispute is eventually resolved by some form of agreement between America and Europe over the future of Greenland – and, for all the sound and fury, that remains the most likely outcome – who will ever trust the United States to honor its NATO obligation to defend its European allies?
As the Prime Minister said in Downing Street on Monday: “Alliances endure because they are built on respect and partnership, not on pressure. The use of tariffs against allies is completely wrong.”
By putting pressure on his friends – openly and forcefully – Trump has fundamentally weakened the Atlantic Alliance. The Soviet leaders always knew that if they invaded any NATO ally, they would find themselves in a war with America, a war they could not win. Peace itself depended on that belief. Why should Putin believe it now?
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