President Trump’s tariff revenue fell in November, but the president’s frequent promises of what he would do with the money continued apace.
According to Yahoo Finance’s count, the president has presented at least nine different ideas for how the tax money could be used, stretching back to the 2024 campaign.
It is a list of promises that ranges from sending Americans $ 2,000 dividend checks to paying for the tax cuts that the Republicans instituted this summer.
Trump reminded the crowd at a rally in Pennsylvania this week exactly how he feels about the tariffs, saying the word, “I love it more than any other word in the dictionary.” He reduced it only after other words such as religion and family, he said, at the request of the “fake news.”
President Donald Trump arrives to deliver remarks on the economy at Mount Airy Casino Resort in Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania, on December 9. (ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP via Getty Images) ·ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS via Getty Images
However, the tariff revenue picture has become considerably murkier in recent weeks after the president caved in to Americans’ concerns about affordability and removed some tariffs on items such as coffee, oranges, and cocoa that had seen price increases.
This led to a drop in monthly fee revenue from $31.35 billion received in October to $30.76 billion last month, the first drop since Trump began implementing his historic second-term duties.
And Trump’s promises, of course, also come with a looming Supreme Court ruling that could not only invalidate the lion’s share of new tariffs, but also potentially force him to issue up to $100 billion in refunds.
This past week, the administration announced a $12 billion bailout fund for farmers. That money “would not be possible without tariffs,” the president said.
Scott Lincicome, an economist at the Cato Institute, quickly pointed to four additional things that Trump promised his tariffs would pay for.
In addition to farm bailouts, dividend controls, and tax cuts, Lincicome noted Trump’s promise to pay down the national debt with tariffs and his occasional suggestion that tariffs could lead to the elimination of income taxes.
One respondent quickly pointed to a sixth example: a Trump campaign promise to pay for fee-enhanced child care.
He was asked at an event last September at the Economic Club of New York about his ideas for making childcare more affordable.
“The kind of numbers I’m talking about by taxing foreign nations at levels they’re not used to,” he replied, “are much bigger than any numbers we’re talking about, including child care.”
Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event at the Economic Club of New York on September 5, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Pamela Smith) ·ASSOCIATED PRESS
A review of Trump’s campaign promises and other proposals since taking office reveals even more examples, including at the same Economic Club of New York event.
“Through all this money that will be taken through tariffs and other smart things … we will have the largest sovereign wealth fund of them all,” he said, suggesting another use for the money.
More recently, Trump reportedly presented the idea of a “victory fund” for Ukraine, financed by new tariffs on China over its purchase of Russian oil.
His administration also used tariff money to keep the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC) afloat during the government shutdown with a $300 million infusion.
The November receipts brought the total revenue from the fees collected this calendar year to about $ 236.16 billion with last month.
But nearly all of Trump’s ideas come with an even bigger price tag, meaning it’s unlikely he can pay for nearly every one of them with fee revenue alone.
As one example, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget recently estimated that one round of tariff dividend controls could cost up to $600 billion and take about two years to pay off using only tariff revenue.
Activists pose for photos outside the Supreme Court in November as the high court heard arguments on the legality of the Trump Administration’s tariffs. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images) ·Andrew Harnik via Getty Images
“Under almost every design option, sending $2,000 payments to Americans would increase, not decrease, the federal budget deficit,” the Tax Foundation added in its own analysis. “A better way to provide relief from the burden of tariffs would be to eliminate tariffs.”
Earlier this year, the president also suggested the tariffs meant he could balance the budget now.
But that seems unlikely, and individual income taxes probably aren’t going anywhere anytime soon either.
The tally for those taxes this calendar year so far — by way of comparison with the $236 billion fee — is more than 10 times that, according to the Treasury Department, at more than $2.5 trillion.
Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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