KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine’s president is facing a confluence of crises that will test his ability to lead an increasingly weary nation nearly four years into a devastating full-scale invasion by Russia.
For more than a week, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has struggled to contain the fallout from a $100 million corruption scandal implicating senior officials and other associates. The pressure on Zelenskyy has increased as the United States is pushing a proposal it drew up with Russia that would require major concessions from Ukraine — and apparently some from Russia — to end the war.
All this is happening as Russia makes slow but steady advances along parts of the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line and relentlessly bombs Ukraine’s power plants, causing severe power shortages as cold weather sets in.
Here are five things to know about the growing pressures Zelenskyy is facing:
We face rebellion
Zelenskyy has faced a rebellion from lawmakers in his own party since the country’s corruption watchdog revealed that $100 million had been embezzled from the energy sector through kickbacks paid by contractors.
After the investigators publicized their findings, Zelenskyy fired two senior officials and imposed sanctions on close associates. One associate of Zelenskyy implicated in the scheme, Tymur Mindich, has reportedly fled the country. Mindich is a partner in a media production company that Zelenskyy co-owned before becoming president.
Some Ukrainian lawmakers and activists are calling on the president to fire his powerful chief of staff, Andrii Yermak.
Neither Zelenskyy nor Yermak have been charged with wrongdoing by investigators. But because Yermak is widely believed to decide key government appointments and wield influence in top political affairs, lawmakers believe he should take responsibility as a way to help restore public confidence.
Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party won more than two-thirds of the parliamentary seats in 2019. But some politicians warn that a split in the party or a series of defections could lead Zelenskyy to lose his parliamentary majority, if he does not separate from Yermak.
Many of Zelenskyy’s political allies feel that something needs to change, even if they have not gone public with their concerns, said Mykola Davidiuk, an independent political expert. One of the main criticisms of Zelenskyy’s government is that too much power is concentrated in the hands of Yermak and his advisers, Davidiuk said.
“Zelenskyy’s management style is not working,” he said.
How decisively Zelenskyy responds to the corruption scandal could determine whether the fallout damages Ukraine’s standing with allies, Davidiuk said.
Zelenskyy’s hold on power is not at imminent risk
Russia’s invasion triggered martial law in Ukraine, indefinitely postponing presidential and parliamentary elections.
So even if Zelenskyy’s control over parliament weakens and his popularity declines, it is highly unlikely that he will be removed while the war is still going on — unless he voluntarily resigns.
Ukraine’s presidential term is normally five years and, before the war, the next elections were scheduled for spring 2024.
The growing political headwinds facing Zelenskyy could challenge his ability to push through parliament any potential peace deal being negotiated with Russia. And if he were to seek re-election after the war, his chances could be hurt if Yermak is still in the picture, political analysts say.
A former general is seen as a rival, but denies political aspirations
No elected Ukrainian opposition figures pose a viable threat to Zelenskyy. Former Ukrainian President and current opposition lawmaker, Petro Poroshenko, has failed to expand his support beyond his small loyalist base. His attempts to call a vote of no confidence in the Ukrainian government also fell short. He collected less than half of the required 150 votes.
One potential challenger could be Ukraine’s former army chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who oversaw several successful counteroffensives in the first year of the war and was fired by Ukraine’s president in late 2023.
Zaluzhnyi now serves as Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom
Zaluzhnyi denies any intention to enter politics, but polls in Ukraine show him as theoretically competitive with Zelenskyy, keeping alive speculation that he may be convinced to run in the next election.
The United States and Russia draw up a plan to end the war in Ukraine
The United States and Russia have drawn up a plan aimed at ending the war in Ukraine that demands major concessions from Kyiv, according to a draft obtained by The Associated Press, including granting some demands the Kremlin has made repeatedly since invading in early 2022.
The plan calls for Ukraine to cede territory to Russia and for Kiev to limit the size of its military.
Russia, as part of the proposal, will be given effective control of the entire eastern Donbas region — an area Moscow has been seeking — even though Ukraine is still in control of part of it.
Zelenskyy previously rejected the same conditions, describing them as unconstitutional and unfair. His office said Thursday that he had officially received the plan but did not comment on its content.
Reports of the plan emerged as Zelenskyy faced further concerns over the corruption scandal. “The timing is very damaging for Ukraine,” said Orysia Lutsevych, a Ukraine expert at Chatham House.
“Zelenskyy is vulnerable. Both the United States and Russia (saw) the domestic scandal and decided to put more pressure on him to concede to a Russian plan,” said Lutsevych. But the effort may not work as planned, she said, noting that the European allies are coming to the defense of Ukraine and speaking against the plan.
Pressure at the front and across the country
Against this backdrop, Russia’s better-equipped army has stepped up attacks along the front line and against energy facilities in the rear, putting more pressure on Ukraine.
The Russian army continues to advance steadily in various areas. In the northeastern Kharkiv region, Russian forces are pushing on the towns of Kupiansk and Lyman, which Ukraine retook from Russia in the first year of the war. But the fiercest battles are around the besieged Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub in the eastern Donetsk region.
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power plants in November resulted in some of the worst power outages since the war began.