The “s” word is back in the forecast.
Knoxville and East Tennessee could get snow on January 23rd and January 24th. The snow is the result of a major winter storm that has hit a large swath of the eastern United States, according to the National Weather Service.
The snowstorm is predicted to be a “significant weather event,” according to National Weather Service Morristown office meteorologist Charles Dalton. East Tennessee may receive unevenly high snow totals.
“The chances for a significant winter storm look high right now,” Dalton said.
After the snow has fallen, the cold weather will settle in, meaning the ice or snow can stick around for days before it melts.
The storm can it would be similar to what happened in Knoxville in January 2024, Dalton said. This means there is potential for more than 6 inches of snow and long-term impacts on the roads.
Here’s what to expect.
How much snow is Knoxville supposed to get?
It’s too early to tell exactly how much snow Knoxville and East Tennessee could get on Saturday, Jan. 24, Dalton said, but it will start to come into focus as the date gets closer.
In pursuit of the most accurate weather forecast, meteorologists typically wait until about three days before a storm to predict how many inches of rain or snow an area might get.
A week before a snowstorm, meteorologists at the National Weather Service monitor at least three separate models to create forecasts: One American, one European and one from the United Kingdom. Three days before a snowstorm, there are more weather models for forecasters to use.
“We look at the big picture first, then we look at the fine details and what’s most likely,” Dalton said.
Freezing temperatures to follow a snow storm
Despite how much snow falls on January 23 and January 24, it will remain for days, according to the forecast of the National Weather Service.
Highs are forecast to remain around the freezing mark into next week, according to Dalton.
“The cold air behind the storm will keep it around for several days,” Dalton said.
What is a ‘significant’ snowstorm?
“Significant” is a subjective term that depends on the normal weather patterns of a region. What it means to have a “normal” or “significant” amount of snow will vary from city to city.
In East Tennessee, Dalton considers a snow total of 6 inches or more to be a significant amount.
What happened in January 2024?
Knoxvillians will remember the big storm that shut down the city in 2024. Schools were out for many days and life in East Tennessee essentially came to a standstill after heavy snow infiltrated the region and stuck around.
There have been seven straight days with at least 4 inches of snow on the ground because cold temperatures mean it hasn’t melted, according to Knoxville records.
Nine people died in that snowstorm, mostly from exposure to the cold.
When was the last time East Tennessee had a major snowstorm?
It is not unprecedented for Knoxville to get a significant amount of snow over 24 hours, but it is rare. There have been nine occasions where Knoxville has gotten 8 inches or more of snow in 24 hours since 1884, according to the National Weather Service.
There have been seven cases of this happening in the Tri-Cities since 1938 and eight times where Chattanooga got more than 8 inches of snow in one day.
Here’s when the most recent major storms hit East Tennessee.
Over 8 inches of snow in 24 hours
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Chattanooga: January 10-11, 2011
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Knoxville: January 15-16, 2024
Over 10 inches of snow in 24 hours
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Chattanooga: March 12-13, 1993
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Knoxville: March 12-13, 1993
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Tri-Cities: February 2-3, 1996
Knoxville weather radar
Allison Kiehl covers trending and breaking news from Knoxville for the Tennessee Connect Team. Email: allison.kiehl@knoxnews.com
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This article originally appeared on the Knoxville News Sentinel: Knoxville weather forecast: How many inches of snow this weekend?