A research team has examined how increased rainfall in the Arctic is leading to significant changes – and the implications hit closer to home than some might think.
What is going on?
The researchers used climate model simulations to study how sea ice retreat impacts summer rainfall patterns. The results, published in Geophysical Research Letters, showed that rainfall would increase by 17% if global temperatures rise to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, with 16% of the increase attributed to the retreat of sea ice.
This is because melting sea ice changes the “cold white cap” effect, weakening the region’s ability to reflect solar radiation and thus pushing the Arctic towards a warmer, “rain-dominated” water cycle, according to an analysis by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) published in Phys.org.
Researchers from the Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources of the CAS, Beijing Normal University, and the University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences also participated in the study.
Why is this important?
First author Yang Jiao explained that in the Arctic, animals that depend on sea ice for food and shelter, such as reindeer and polar bears, “face survival crises,” according to Phys.org. These crises disrupt the ecological balance of the region, which is vital to limit the spread of disease and support the food web.
And what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic. Increased rainfall accelerates the melting of permafrost, releasing additional planet-warming gases, according to the study.
While extreme weather phenomena occur naturally — and the events cannot be linked solely to a warming planet, as complex factors influence weather, according to NOAA — human activities are pumping billions of tons of heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere each year.
This has led to more intense extreme weather, according to scientific consensus. At home, this can mean high insurance premiums, shortages of essential items, and a higher risk of grid outages.
What is being done about it?
The researchers believe that their knowledge of this critical climate issue can aid in the development of more accurate forecast models for Arctic weather.
“This study not only deepens our understanding of the processes of warming and humidification in the Arctic, but also establishes a quantitative relationship model of “sea ice precipitation,” which provides a powerful tool to strengthen the ability to predict extreme weather and climate events in the Arctic,” said Yang, for Phys.org.
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