Nvidia’s Biggest AI Bet Is Collapsing Its ‘Secret Portfolio’ Can He Recover?

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  • Nvidia (NVDA) invested $350M in it CoreWeave (CRWV) before its IPO and now has a 7% stake. CoreWeave accounts for more than 86% of Nvidia’s $3.84B AI investment portfolio.

  • CoreWeave is down 60% from the June peak for a $39B market cap. The company posted $1.36B in Q3 revenue but continues to lose money despite strong growth.

  • Nvidia has committed to buying $6.3B of unsold CoreWeave cloud capacity by 2032, but this revenue backstop raises questions about real end-user AI demand.

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Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has amassed a strategic portfolio of public investments in AI-focused companies, including chip designers, data center operators, and infrastructure providers that not many investors are aware of. It consists of six holdings that at the end of the third quarter were valued at approximately $3.84 billion.

The dominant position is in CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV), the specialized AI cloud provider that relies heavily on Nvidia GPUs and accounts for more than 86% of the portfolio’s value.

Nvidia invested $350 million in CoreWeave in two tranches ahead of its March IPO. After originally investing $100 million in April 2023, it invested another $250 million just before its public debut, giving it a total of about 24.2 million shares at $40 per share, and getting a 7% stake for Nvidia.

After the IPO, CoreWeave hit an all-time high of $187 per share in June, but has been on a fairly steady decline since then. Despite nearly doubling from its IPO price, the stock is down nearly 60% from that peak. On Friday, it suffered another 10% drop, bringing its market capitalization to about $39 billion — a sharp erosion from the nearly $80 billion it was worth at the end of June.

Most of Friday followed an SEC Form 4 filing that revealed Chief Financial Officer Nitin Agrawal sold 66,467 shares on Dec. 11 at an average price of $82.58, totaling about $5.49 million. While investors are often reminded to ignore insider sales because they can sell stock for any reason — or no reason at all — those made by CFOs should be noted for their specialized knowledge of company finances.

However, the Agrawal transaction resulted from the vesting of restricted stock units, with the sale covering associated tax withholding obligations. Insider selling is common with RSU vesting and often serves administrative purposes rather than indicating fundamental concerns. This was a non-event for CoreWeave, and Agrawal still owns more than 203,000 shares after the sale.

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