The forecast for the 2026 housing market looks brighter than the last few years, but only if homeowners can find less turbulent places to live.
According to Kin, a direct provider of home insurance and direct-to-consumer finance and their inaugural Home Trends Report, 49% of homeowners move on their mind. The desire for people to relocate again should put housing experts on cloud nine, but there is a catch.
The reason behind this potential mass migration? Climate concerns. But what place is really as good as rain?
Kin surveyed 1,000 owners of single-family homes in the United States in their report, seeking to decipher how much the weather plays a role in their housing decisions.
The vast majority of recipients (93%) admitted their concern about damage to their home in the next two to three years due to extreme weather.
Looking back at the last three years, it is not difficult to understand their concerns. The LA fires. Hurricane Milton and Helene. The Central Texas flood. If the last five years have taught homeowners anything, it’s that the worst can strike at any time.
And it seems that the homeowners are considering this for the future. 68% of those homeowners surveyed expect the frequency of extreme weather events in their area to increase in 2026 compared to 2025.
Although no one has a crystal ball, the new year has always started with flurries of weather activity, with hail and a bomb cyclone, while flooding remains an issue for areas along the West Coast.
According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, there are several factors that will shape the rest of the winter season that homeowners should be aware of.
On the one hand, the trajectory of La Niña will be important. It started to slow down as the Pacific moved towards neutral conditions towards the end of the year. The National Weather Service saw the same continue. In addition, long-term ocean trends remain strong, with a warm Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and a cool Pacific Decadal Oscillation continuing to influence where storms tend to develop and intensify, according to the Almanac. This is probably contributing to the heavy snow and rain that has hit the Pacific Northwest recently.
Among those who are considering relocation due to climate concerns, a quarter are considering moving to a different state altogether.
Florida (58%) and California (52%) top the list of states homeowners say they avoid moving to because of extreme weather risks, followed by Hawaii (24%), Louisiana (22%), Texas (21%) and Alaska (21%).