MIAMI – After Democrat Eileen Higgins won the Miami mayoral race on Tuesday, her campaign adviser sent out a memo bragging that the election has created “a renewed sense of Democratic momentum across Florida and the country” – and predicted that Democrats will be “supercharged with enthusiasm going into 2026.”
Democrats across the state and across the country exuberantly agreed, with the victory in a race focused on affordability and government efficiency ending a streak of multiple victories for the party and raising hopes of a return to form in the once-vaunted swing state.
The President of the Democratic Party of Florida Nikki Fried told reporters Wednesday that the party will continue to lean in its “Pendulum Project” to organize all year in every county. She said it would be necessary to bring independents and Republicans together, as Higgins did.
“We’re working on the job,” Fried said. “We are getting great candidates, and now is the time to continue building this momentum in 2026.”
But Democrats still have to contend with some serious headwinds in Florida. They are heading into the midterms with a 1.4 million voter registration disadvantage against the Republicans. And the GOP in Florida has far more cash than the Democrats, raising $12.7 million through the first three quarters of this year compared to the Democrats’ $1.5 million — not to mention severe morale issues and infighting that have bedeviled the state party.
“This was a small victory for the Democrats … but they’ve turned it into big national news to keep their donors happy,” said Angie Wong, a member of the Republican executive committee in Miami.
Miami, unlike most of Florida, has a 23,000-person voter registration advantage in favor of Democrats when counting both active and inactive voters. While Trump won Miami-Dade County by 11 points in 2024, he lost the city to former Vice President Kamala Harris by 1 point. The outgoing GOP mayor, Francis Suarez, began his years in office rejecting policies from Trump and DeSantis — though it’s been happening ever since. Despite losing Miami, Republicans won a special election for the state Senate on Tuesday night and retained a majority on the Miami city commission.
“Republicans are gaining strength, and the trajectory on voter registration is not slowing down,” said Evan Power, chairman of the Republican Party of Florida. “The fact is, the Democrats making a lot of noise about Kamala City shows how little movement they have. The Democratic Party is still on the verge of extinction in Florida.”
Florida Democrats also faced high morale and infighting earlier this year, with the state Senate’s Democratic leader leaving the party and two state House members defecting to the GOP after the 2024 election. A Miami-based Democratic political organizer, who was granted anonymity to deliver a candid assessment, said there were 11 months left until the next election with “infinite opportunities for leadership” to mess it up, including if they choose to “interfere in the primaries” or “start the all-progressive fight against the establishment.”
Still, the race in Miami gave Democrats a jolt of excitement as it became more nationalized, and came a week after the party overperformed in a special House election in Tennessee. The Democratic National Committee sent volunteers to help, and leading Democrats — including rumored 2028 presidential candidates — flocked to the Magic City or endorsed Higgins on social media as her prospects for victory improved.
“People are underestimating Florida,” said Chris Korge, the DNC’s finance chairman and a South Florida resident, who acknowledged the circumstances were “tough” until Democrats saw a slew of victories in November that he called “a huge swing in a record period of time.” He said the DNC will get involved in the race for governor and other down-vote contests, since 40 percent of the electoral college is expected to be concentrated in the South by 2032.
He predicted the interest of donors next year “because they will have the belief after the races in November – and this race in particular, which has attracted national attention – they will have some real confidence that we can win.”
Miami was not the only victory the Democrats saw in Florida on Tuesday night. The party won a special election in a State House district in Palm Beach County. Although it was a safe Democratic seat, the party said the vote had dipped to the left since the 2024 election. A Democrat also was re-elected in a runoff for a commission seat in Miami Beach. And although they lost a special election for a state Senate seat, they said they overperformed.
On Wednesday morning, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced that it was increasing the seat currently held by GOP Rep. Laurel Lee with his list of districts “in play”, making four Florida seats on their radar. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which helps elect Democrats to state lawmakers, also announced it was adding Florida to its target map, calling it a “once-in-a-generation” political environment.
Yet Republicans in the Legislature also could make 2026 even more difficult for Democrats if they move forward with a mid-decade redistricting push. While the state House and Governor Ron DeSantis disagree on when and how to move forward, redrawing the maps could result in Florida gaining up to five GOP seats.
Fried argued that any map changes are “illegal” and accused Republicans of taking the effort to try to keep winning despite voter concerns about high prices, rising premiums for Obamacare plans, ICE deportations and other issues.
“Regardless of what those seats look like, I believe we’re going to be able to keep our Democratic seats and flip a whole bunch more,” she said, describing herself as “not overly worried.”