SoundThinking’s latest price target update leaves its key valuation drivers largely intact, with fair value holding firm at $15.50 per share and long-term revenue growth assumptions virtually unchanged at around 9.11% and a stable risk profile signaled by a discount rate of 8.61%. Bulls see this as evidence that the long-term story of public safety technology is still on track despite near-term contract noise, while bears argue that recent delays and a softer 2026 outlook warrant a more cautious stance on the upside. Read on to see how you can track these shifts in expectations and stay ahead of future narrative changes around the stock.
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🐂 Bullish Takeaways
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Lake Street, via analyst Eric Martinuzzi, continues to rate SoundThinking shares as Buy, indicating a belief that the long-term history and ability to execute remain intact despite recent volatility.
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The firm emphasizes that the company “remains well positioned”, and points to a potentially positive result on the main Chicago RFP as a driver that can support growth momentum and support the current valuation.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
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Lake Street cut its price target to $14 from $19, a notable reset that reflects concerns about a Q3 top-line loss linked to contract delays and a softer outlook for 2026, tempering expectations for the upside from here.
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The lower target reflects a more cautious stance on short-term execution risk and the timing of revenue conversion from delayed contracts, which could pressure growth and limit multiple expansion if uncertainties persist.
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Lowered 2025 revenue guidance to about $104 million after a 4% year-over-year decline in third-quarter revenue, as delays in several domestic deployments weighed on results. Management still expects the delayed contracts to be recognized in the near future.
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It introduced 2026 guidance that points to faster revenue growth and higher profitability beyond 2025. This indicates confidence that the current headwinds are temporary and that the long-term growth trajectory remains intact.
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Announced CrimeTracer Gen3, a major enhancement that transforms the platform into an agency-wide crime-fighting solution with AI-driven analytics, natural language search, and deeper integration into the SafetySmart platform. The main features are scheduled to roll out from mid-November 2025 to the end of the year.
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Investors updated on share repurchase activity, completing the buyback of 873,056 shares, or 6.91% of outstanding shares, for $14.62 million under the existing program. This includes 160,271 shares repurchased between July 1 and November 12, 2025 for $1.99 million. The company also reported higher impairment charges on property and equipment of $237,000 in the third quarter versus $54,000 a year earlier.