BEIJING (AP) — A few days after China issued an advisory against travel to Japan, the cancellations began.
About 3,000 Chinese visit Rie Takeda’s tearoom in an alleyway in Tokyo’s historic Asakusa district every year. About 200 have already canceled bookings for her tea ceremony class, since January.
“I just hope the Chinese tourists will return by the Chinese New Year,” she said, referring to the main holiday period in February. Past experience suggests it may take longer than that.
China’s government is turning to a well-used playbook to express its displeasure with Japan for refusing to retract a statement by its new prime minister on the burning issue of Taiwan.
As with its tariffs on Australian wines in 2020, and restrictions on Philippine banana imports in 2012, Beijing is using its economic clout to pressure Tokyo while also hurling a torrent of invective at its government. The only question is how far China will go and how long the measures will last.
“China’s countermeasures are all kept secret and will be disseminated one by one,” said Liu Jiangyong, a professor of international relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “Everything is possible, because this involves the heart of the main interests of the nation.”
Disputes can drag on for more than a year
China was angered by a statement by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi earlier this month that its military could get involved if China were to take action against Taiwan, the autonomous island that Beijing says it wants to fall under its rule.
Japan is trying to keep the feud from escalating but has shown no sign of backing down. This fits the way some other governments have reacted to China’s pressure: Stick to their positions and suffer the pain, and let the disputes rage on for a year or more.
“The diplomatic challenge for both sides is that they have their own domestic audiences so they don’t want to be perceived as backward,” said Sheila A. Smith, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of “Intimate Rivals,” a book on Japan-China relations.
With several countries, disputes continued until a political change brought a new leader unencumbered by the baggage of past statements.
Australia’s trade with China has gradually returned to normal since the election of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in 2022 — the latest step being the reopening of the lobster market. Canada is the last country to start repairing relations under the new Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Travel advisory begins to bite
It is not the first time Japan has faced China’s economic wrath. In 2012, protesters attacked Japanese businesses in China and boycotted their goods after a dispute erupted over a group of uninhabited islands claimed by both countries. Group tours to Japan have been cancelled.
Based on what happened that day, when Chinese visitors fell by a quarter, Nomura Research Institute economist Takahide Kiuchi estimated that the current travel advisory could cost Japan 1.8 trillion yen ($11.5 billion), knocking 0.3 percentage points off its already low annual economic growth.
Many group tours have been canceled again, hitting businesses that depend on them. Gamagori Hotel in Japan’s central Aichi prefecture said it had lost more than 2,000 guests. Nichu Syomu, a Japan-based tour company that focuses on Chinese tourists, said 300 bookings had been cancelled, describing the loss as comparable to 2012.
China has been on track this year to displace South Korea and return to its pre-pandemic position as the top source of tourists to Japan. More than 8 million Chinese visited in the first 10 months of this year, or 23% of the total, according to the Japan National Tourism Organization.
“It’s a shame,” said tour operator Nichu Syomu Nana Enomoto, noting that Chinese tourism was still recovering.
Some Chinese tourists cancel. Others do not
Kyren Zhu, who had never been to Japan, agonized over the decision. Her parents warned her not to go. In the end, the accountant canceled a trip with a friend to see the autumn leaves. Her friend went forward and told her that nothing unusual had happened.
“If I had known, I probably would have gone,” she said. “But it’s hard to say. The situation is really beyond our control.”
Beijing resident Livia Du, who opened a ski lodge last year in northern Japan, received two cancellations – but they were quickly filled by other Chinese.
One client told her that since China had taken a clear position, he had to align with it. Another works in a government company and said staff had been ordered not to visit Japan in the short term.
The guests seem to be waiting and watching, said Du, who quit her job and invested more than 2 million yuan ($280,000) with her husband to build the lodge in Hokkaido. She was worried that the situation could get worse.
China warns it may take further steps
The pressure appeared to extend into other sectors last week. The Chinese release of two Japanese films was suddenly postponed – the comedy “Cells at Work!” and the animated feature “Crayon Shin-chan the Movie: Super Hot! The Spicy Kasukabe Dancers.”
A comedy festival in Shanghai has canceled performances by a Japanese entertainment company, while a book publishing editor said her boss told her to suspend a project to import Japanese comics.
The outlook for seafood exports to China remained unclear, even after Tokyo denied news reports that Beijing had said it was reversing its decision to end a two-year ban on Japanese seafood.
Japan has failed to provide the technical documentation needed to resume exports, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said when asked about the reports.
China can also target its export of rare earths, which are vital for the production of cars and other industries. Beijing found minerals to be an American weakness when it limited their exports earlier this year.
“Japan should first withdraw its erroneous remarks and take concrete actions to maintain the political foundation of China-Japan relations,” Mao said last week. “Otherwise, China will have to take more measures.”
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McGill reported from Tokyo. Associated Press writer Fu Ting in Washington contributed to this report.