Silver is making a big run higher amid tightening export controls in China and meme-stock-style buying by Main Street investors hoping to squeeze out bearish bets.
The precious metal has risen by a staggering 249% over the past year, including a 47% year-to-date jump, but not everyone thinks that silver prices are destined to continue rising.
Former JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic and a famous Wall Street trader Peter Brandt both issued silver alarms in separate posts on X (formerly Twitter) this week.
The stakes are high for investors, as silver has gone parabolic, rising in a straight line, sparking animal spirits among those hoping to reap even bigger gains.
New buyers, however, should remember that precious metals are notorious for boom-and-bust movements, making new positions riskier now than they were months ago.
Some analysts are skeptical about silver’s recent growth spurt.Shutterstock” loading=”eager” height=”540″ width=”960″ class=”yf-lglytj loader”/>
Some analysts are skeptical about silver’s recent growth spurt.Shutterstock ·Shutterstock
On January 1, China designated silver as a strategic resource, along with rare minerals. The move restricts silver exports, requiring licenses that have become harder to obtain. Only 44 companies have qualified for silver export licenses as China seeks to guarantee supply for solar, EVs and next-generation electronics technologies.
The move accelerated a rally that erupted last year, driven by bullishness over industrial demand for high-tech applications and, more generally, by growing interest among investors eager to diversify portfolios by owning silver ETFs, such as iShares Silver Trust (SLV), or physical silver, such as coins and bars.
The numbers are really huge. Silver’s move has lifted the market size above $6 trillion. Putting that figure into perspective, Nvidia, Apple, and Alphabet boast market caps of $4.5 trillion, $3.75 trillion, and $4 trillion, respectively.
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Everyone wants to get in on the action.
On January 26, the iShares Silver Trust exchange-traded fund saw a turnover of almost $40 billion, according to Bloomberg, a figure similar to that of SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the ETF for the 500 most influential publicly traded companies. That’s almost 20x higher than it had been on average for most of last year.
Such moves are not uncommon, and are often warning shots that investors should pay attention to. I’ve been following the markets for over 30 years, and I’ve seen more than my fair share of jaw pops that eventually turned into drops.
I’m not alone in worrying that the recent move is setting up a reversal.
Former JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic, whose career dates back more than 20 years and includes roles at Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns before a 16-year run at JPMorgan that helped him enter the Institutional Investor Hall of Famegave a clear silver prediction on X.
Kolanovic says the rally faces existential risks that will eventually lead to a bubble burst.
“Unlike purely fictitious assets like NFTs, bubbles in commodities cannot last long – industry demand dries up, supply (eg, recycling) increases, and new production is hedged,” Kolanovic wrote.
Veteran businessman Peter Brandt, perhaps best known for appearing in Jack Schwager’s “Unknown Market Wizards: The best traders you’ve never heard of”, he also raised alarms.
Brandt began trading commodities back in 1976 with ContiCommodity Services, a division of Continental Grain Company, where he managed institutional accounts for major consumer goods companies, including Campbell Soup.
He founded his own trading firm, Factor Trading Co., in 1980, wrote “Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns” in 1990, and then “Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader” in 2011. Needless to say, he knows a thing or two about commodities, including silver.
On X, Brandt offered a series of warnings, including one noting that recent silver trading mirrors the action at the peak of the last silver boom in 2011.
“Today, almost 2 years of world production traded in world exchanges. More than 1.5 billion ounces. The last time such a proportion traded was April 25, the day of the peak 2011,” wrote Brandt.
Brandt previously correctly called for silver prices to drop on April 24, 2011.
The manias are difficult to get right at the moment because the increases and plunges tend to go much longer than many expect. Many silver bulls argue that the game changed in January when China limited exports and the US government added silver to its list of critical minerals.
I’ve learned over my decades in the markets that some of the most dangerous words in the English language when it comes to investing are “this time it’s different.”
Related: The rise of silver masks a quiet risk
Kolanovic and Brandt seem to agree. No one knows when the silver rally will fade, but history can offer a clue. For example, the Hunt Brothers tried to ride the silver market in 1980, driving prices from about $6 per ounce to almost $50.
This ended very badly for the Hunt and those who followed them in silver. The silver market collapsed after the COMEX implemented “Silver Rule 7”, which restricted the purchase of silver on margin, leading to massive margin calls and forced selling that wiped out 90% of the value of silver within two years.
In 2011, when Brandt was warning of risks to silver, prices were similarly close to $50 as a weak dollar led to increased buying. Again, the exchanges implemented margin changes, walking requirements until the bubble burst.
History does not repeat itself, as Twain opined, but it often rhymes. As Kolanovic pointed out, more supply, including holders of physical silver sales, changes in margin requirements, or even silver miners selling future production, could disrupt Silver’s epic run.
Related: Robert Kiyosaki teases strange new gold price target
This story was originally published by TheStreet on January 27, 2026, where it first appeared in the Investing section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.