Recently, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk made a history-changing announcement on his social media platform X. In part he said: “For those who don’t know, SpaceX has already shifted its focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can achieve this in less than 10 years, while Mars takes 20 years or more.”
“It is only possible to travel to Mars when the planets align every 26 months (a six-month travel time), while we can launch to the Moon every 10 days (a two-day travel time),” explained Musk. “This means we can go much faster to complete a city on the Moon than a city on Mars.”
He concluded by affirming that he has not given up on Mars: “SpaceX will also strive to build a Mars city and start doing it in about five to seven years, but the main priority is to ensure the future of civilization and the Moon faster.”
The announcement was not entirely a surprise to those who have been paying attention. In addition to greater ease of access than Mars, the moon provides SpaceX with a means to make a lot of money as a source of raw materials for Musk’s proposed orbiting AI data centers. The data centers will be powered 24/7 by solar panels.
The data centers, instead of being launched from Earth, would be manufactured on the moon and launched by an electromagnetic mass driver into Earth orbit. Launch costs are drastically reduced due to the moon’s lower gravity and costs measured, in part, in electricity.
But the initial cost would be immense. SpaceX will have to launch mining and manufacturing equipment, not to mention the technology that the lunar settlers will need to survive, from Earth to the moon. No doubt, many Optimus robots will be included in the initial cargo to help with construction. Of course, Musk would use as many local materials as possible to build his lunar city.
Musk is the richest man on the planet and will be even richer once SpaceX goes through with its IPO later this year. If anyone can build a lunar settlement, he can. Whether he can do it in 10 years is another question.
In addition to providing a means to build orbital AI data centers, Musk’s pivot to the moon provides several other benefits. If SpaceX builds “Moon Base Alpha”, as Musk called it after the setting of a science fiction show of the seventies, with mining and manufacturing infrastructure and a mass engine, it will be able to provide services to other customers, such as those who build orbital industrial facilities by providing a source of raw and refined materials. A lunar city could spark a space-based industrial revolution.
Musk’s pivot to the moon puts SpaceX in full alignment with the goals of the Artemis program: first the moon and then Mars. NASA could end up renting space in the SpaceX lunar city for its explorers and scientists at less cost than if it built one itself.
Ironically, the decision to build a lunar city first before going to Mars may make the latter easier in the long run. Craters deep in the lunar poles contain water ice that can be refined into oxygen and hydrogen. Hydrogen can be combined with carbon dioxide to make methane, which the SpaceX Starship uses as fuel. The process is known as Sabatier reaction.
According to Phys.org, deep crater cold traps at the lunar poles also contain frozen carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide emitted by astronauts could be another source. In addition, the first Starships to Mars could defuel in the vicinity of the moon before heading to the Red Planet, reducing the cost and complexity of interplanetary travel.
One final benefit of Musk’s pivot to the moon will be for companies working on lunar mining and manufacturing technologies. SpaceX’s rival Blue Origin is working on something called Blue Alchemist, which separates lunar regolith into materials like oxygen, silicon, iron and aluminum. Silicon is used to create solar cells.
People dreamed of a lunar settlement even before the days of the Apollo program. NASA has declined twice, due to politics, to start one. Ironically, an immigrant from South Africa can also make the dream take shape.
Mark R. Whittington, who writes frequently on space politics, has published a political study of space exploration entitled “Why is it so hard to go back to the Moon?” as well as “The Moon, Mars and Beyond” and, most recently, “Why Is America Going Back To The Moon?” He blogs on Curmudgeons Corner.
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