Michael Saylor isn’t backing down from his Bitcoin (BTCUSD) bet, even after the crypto briefly dipped below $62,000 last week and as Strategy (MSTR) faces mounting paper losses. A video from May 2025 has gone viral again after Bitcoin lost half its value from its peak in October above $126,000. In the video, Saylor makes a bold statement: “If people in the rest of the world knew what I know […] and they agreed with me, Bitcoin will go to $10 million tomorrow.”
The timing couldn’t be worse for that clip to come out again. Strategy just disclosed that it bought 855 BTC for $75.3 million, paying an average of $87,974 per coin, according to a regulatory filing. With Bitcoin now trading near $69,000, that fresh buy is already underwater.
According to a CCN report, Strategy now has 713,502 BTC acquired for approximately $54.3 billion at an average cost of $76,052 per coin. At current prices, these holdings are now valued at approximately $50 billion, leaving the firm with more than $4 billion in unrealized losses. Back in October, Strategy’s Bitcoin stash showed paper gains approaching $33 billion. The reversal was brutal.
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MSTR stock has also been hammered. Shares are down about 12% year-to-date (YTD), 44% over the past three months, and 60% over the past 52 weeks. MSTR stock is also down more than 70% from its July 2025 peak of $457.22.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, Strategy posted a net loss of $12.4 billion, or $42.93 per share on a diluted basis, compared to $670.8 million in the year-ago period. Strategy’s operating loss was $17.4 billion versus $1 billion a year earlier.
Despite the bloodbath, Saylor frames Bitcoin’s volatility as an opportunity rather than a problem.
“Volatility has been a gift to the faithful,” Saylor said in the viral video. “It scares the tourist. It scares the lazy. It scares the people who are already conventionally rich and have all the money.” The founder of the Strategy argues that the wild price swings benefit smaller investors who have “more time than money” and can put Bitcoin over 20 years at lower prices.
Saylor made it clear that he is not selling. In fact, Strategy bought more Bitcoin amid the recent selloff.
That said, questions about whether the company might have to liquidate Bitcoin have reached a fever pitch. CEO Phong Le acknowledged in late November that Strategy may be forced to sell Bitcoin if shares trade below the value of the underlying holdings. Saylor later clarified that the company would only contemplate selling if its net asset value (NAV) fell below 1.
At the time of reporting, the Strategy’s NAV is 1.1, still above the threshold. It reflects a small premium but is well below the exuberant multiples seen during Bitcoin rallies. Strategy maintains a cash reserve of $2.25 billion, enough to cover dividend payments for two and a half years without touching BTC. The company said that it intends to keep the reserve at a sufficient level to finance between two and three years of dividends.
The first major debt maturity doesn’t hit until September 2028. The Strategy’s convertible debt is unsecured, which means a Bitcoin crash could go on for quite some time before it becomes a serious problem.
The worst-case scenario only emerges if a disappearing stock premium over the long term prevents the company from refinancing maturing debt.
Saylor’s $10 million claim has sparked a backlash on social media. Users questioned his logic and mentality, with some noting sarcastically that if everyone agreed on the value of an asset, anything could be worth trillions.
Critics warn that Strategy’s debt-backed accumulation of Bitcoin has increased the risks of leverage and centralization. With Bitcoin now trading below the company’s average cost, Strategy’s primary funding method of issuing stock becomes less efficient and increases the risk of dilution.
Some compare the situation to past speculative bubbles, such as Tulip Mania. Others point to technological concerns, including Bitcoin’s energy consumption, the impact of the halving on the miners’ economy, and increasing centralization.
Saylor remains convinced that Bitcoin will surpass gold by 2035. In an interview, Saylor said he has “no doubt” that BTC will become a bigger asset class than gold, citing scarcity, widespread adoption, and long-term demand.
Still, the Strategy’s aggressive focus on BTC accumulation faces real challenges. The company fought battles for inclusion in the S&P 500 ($SPX), falling short in both September and December. Landing a place would have meant institutional credibility and passive inflows.
MSCI put forward a proposal last year to classify firms like Strategy, whose balance sheets are dominated by digital assets, as non-operating companies. Saylor pushed back hard, arguing that the company remains an active business that uses BTC strategically.
The Strategy yielded 22.8% BTC in 2025, beating the lower end of its target range. The company’s revenue was $123 million in Q4, with a gross profit of $81.3 million. Cash and cash equivalents reached $2.3 billion as of December 31, up from $38.1 million a year earlier, reflecting the establishment of the USD reserve.
For now, Saylor shows no signs of wavering from his Bitcoin-first strategy, even as critics grow louder and losses mount. The company maintained a 50% decline before, during the crypto winter 2022 when Bitcoin remained below its average entry price for 16 months.
“Our long-term focus remains,” CFO Andrew Kang said on the Q4 earnings call. “We are committed to increasing Bitcoin per share and building lasting shareholder value over the long term.” Whether that conviction pays off or becomes a cautionary tale depends on Bitcoin’s trajectory over the coming years. For Saylor, the bet is all or nothing.
The Strategy has an overall “Strong Buy” consensus rating. Of the 16 analysts covering MSTR stock, 13 recommend a “Strong Buy”, one recommends a “Moderate Buy” rating, and two recommend a “Hold” rating. The average price target of $419.43 implies about 215% upside potential from current levels.
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At the date of publication, Aditya Raghunath did not hold (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
