By Tim Kelly
TOKYO, Feb 9 (Reuters) – Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide election victory has quelled domestic opposition to her hardline security agenda, fueling plans to press ahead with a defense expansion that China has condemned as a return to militarism.
As the scale of her government’s historic victory became clear on Sunday – which captured 352 of the 465 seats in the lower house – Takaichi said she would “fully work to deliver” an agenda that includes building a military strong enough to deter Chinese threats to its islands, including those near Taiwan.
In November, Takaichi sparked a diplomatic storm with Beijing by suggesting that Japan could respond militarily to any Chinese attack on the democratically governed island if it also threatened Japanese territory.
WOMEN TO CHINA
“I expect to see Japan move forward a lot on defense policy, such as its statements about a Taiwan contingency,” said Kevin Maher, a former US diplomat now with NMV Consulting in Washington. “One impact could be that President Xi Jinping comes to understand her strong position,” he added.
China responded furiously to Takaichi’s Taiwan comment, vowing to “resolutely prevent the resurgence of Japanese militarism” if Tokyo continued on the “wrong path”. Beijing has also imposed a series of economic countermeasures including a boycott on travel to Japan and export restrictions on items such as rare earths that it says Tokyo can use in military equipment.
Shingo Yamagami, a senior fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation and former Japanese ambassador to Australia, said the “hidden agenda” of Sunday’s election was China.
“In light of belligerent actions and waves of economic coercion, should Japan acquiesce or stand tall?” he wrote on X. “The Japanese people have clearly chosen the latter.”
Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to Japan, Lee Yi-yang, was among the first foreign dignitaries to congratulate Takaichi, writing on Facebook that her victory showed that Japan was not intimidated by China’s “threats and pressure”.
China’s foreign ministry on Monday again urged Takaichi to retract her remarks on Taiwan and said its policy towards Japan would not change with one election.
“We urge the Japanese government authorities to take seriously, rather than ignore, the concerns of the international community, and to follow the path of peaceful development instead of repeating the mistakes of militarism,” said foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian.
Takaichi responded by saying that Japan was open to dialogue.
“We will respond calmly and appropriately from the point of view of Japan’s national interest,” Takaichi said Monday in her first press conference after the election.
SECURITY STRATEGY
Takaichi, a fan of former British leader Margaret Thatcher, is already accelerating defense spending to bring it to a record 2% of gross domestic product by the end of March. It also promised to ease restrictions on arms exports and allow Japan to pursue joint defense equipment projects with other countries.
Her administration plans to formulate a new national security strategy, likely by the end of the year, that will further accelerate military spending.
That could raise defense spending to about 3% of GDP, an LDP lawmaker told Reuters ahead of Sunday’s election, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity surrounding such a move.
The potential increase follows pressure from US President Donald Trump on Washington’s allies to increase defense spending.
Japan is taking lessons from nearly four years of war in Ukraine, building up ammunition stockpiles while planning to buy new equipment, including drones, to prepare for any protracted conflict against a more powerful adversary.
“Countries around the world are urgently preparing for new forms of warfare,” Takaichi said. “No one will help a country that does not have the determination to defend itself.”
The scale of Takaichi’s security ambitions may, however, be constrained by tax cuts and economic stimulus measures that stretch public finances, said Jeffrey Hornung, an expert on Japanese security policy at the RAND Corporation.
“Maybe you will see an effort to spend more, but because of its plans to spend on consumer measures, they may not choose to push much more,” he said.
The big win could also bring a taboo security goal, one that doesn’t burden public finances.
With a majority of more than two-thirds in the lower house, she can bring forward an amendment to Japan’s pacifist constitution to formally recognize the Self-Defense Forces as military. Any such change would still require a two-thirds majority in the upper house – which it currently does not control – and approval in a national referendum.
On Monday, Takaichi said she would push for the first revision of the document that the United States issued after Japan’s defeat in World War II.
“It’s not a slam dunk,” Hornung said, “but probably the best chance for any prime minister.”
(Reporting by Tim Kelly; additional reporting by Tom Bateman and John Geddie in Tokyo, Ethan Wang in Beijing and Ben Blanchard in Taipei; Editing by Lincoln Feast)