By Panu Wongcha-um and Devjyot Ghoshal
BANGKOK, Feb 8 (Reuters) – Voters in Thailand turned out in numbers on Sunday for a general election defined by a three-way battle between conservative, progressive and populist camps, with no single party expected to secure a clear majority and prolonging the specter of political instability.
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul set the stage for the snap election in mid-December, amid intense conflict on the border between Thailand and Cambodia, in what analysts said was a move by the conservative leader to tap into rising nationalism.
At that point, he had been in power for less than 100 days, taking over after the ouster of prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra of the populist Pheu Thai party over the Cambodian crisis.
Pheu Thai, backed by billionaire former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who himself went to jail just days after his daughter’s removal, is in but not out, according to the poll.
“We have done everything we can,” Anutin told reporters, after casting his vote in the stronghold of his Bhumjaithai Party in the town of Buriram, northeast of Bangkok. “We hope that the people will have confidence in us.”
But it is the progressive People’s Party, with its message of structural change and reforms for Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, which led most opinion polls during the campaign season.
“This election is about whether Thailand will get out of its way, whether Thailand will get out of its political instability and the economic doldrums that have persisted,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University.
“My preliminary conclusion, I’m afraid to say, is that it won’t come off.”
A steady stream of voters poured into polling stations across Bangkok in the hours after the polls opened, including Suwat Kiatsuwan, a 44-year-old company worker.
“I don’t want the same people anymore,” he said, after casting his vote. “If we vote for the same as before, nothing will change. We were going nowhere.”
Polls closed at 5 pm local time (1000 GMT) and preliminary results were expected in a few hours.
PRE-ELECTION SURVEY
Although he took the fight to Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party and Pheu Thai, the People’s Party may not have enough support to win a parliamentary majority on its own – raising the risk of repeating the fate of its predecessor.
In a survey conducted during the last week of the campaign that was released on Sunday, the National Institute for Development Administration projected that Bhumjaithai will be the winner with between 140 and 150 seats in the House of Representatives of 500 members, before 125-135 for the Popular Party.
Move Forward, the forerunner of the People’s Party, won the last election in 2023 only to be blocked from forming a government by a military-appointed Senate and conservative lawmakers, opening the door for Pheu Thai to take over.
This long-standing struggle between the powerful Royalist-conservative establishment and popular democratic movements has created long periods of uncertainty, characterized by street protests, violent attacks and military coups.
CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM
Thai voters will also be asked at the polls to decide whether a new constitution should replace a 2017 charter, a military-backed document that critics say has concentrated power in undemocratic institutions, including a powerful senate that is chosen through an indirect selection process with limited public participation.
Thailand has had 20 constitutions since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932, with most changes following military coups.
If voters support the drafting of a new national charter, the new government and legislators can begin the amendment process in parliament with two more referendums needed to adopt a new constitution.
“I believe that the party that wins the next election will have a big influence on the direction of constitutional reform, whether we move away from the constitution drafted by the junta or not,” said Napon Jatusripitak of Bangkok-based think-tank Thailand Future.
DIFFERENT STRATEGIES
Bhumjaithai’s rise on the nationalism that emerged from the Thailand-Cambodia conflict – combined with the decline of Pheu Thai after its struggles last year – has led to a rash of defections and reshaped political battlegrounds, including vote-heavy agrarian belts.
Some political parties have responded by drawing into their camps well-known local figures, including those from rival groups, with the aim of capturing networks of personal loyalty that are essential to winning at home.
The reform-minded Popular Party also changed its playbook, mixing the position of the progressive movement against the establishment and bringing in talent from outside to convince the voters that it has what it takes to run a government.
Former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has thrown himself into the mix, stepping up his personal appeal to revive his moribund Democratic Party, which could emerge as a major force in post-election coalition talks.
(Adilyal Reported with Thremones, while In Wessaar, Editing with Raju Opalicannin).