BIG COUNTRY, TEXAS (KTAB/KRBC) – Starting March 3, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) will push out an update to its Severe Weather Outlook, adding more details on how intense storms could be if they develop. The changes will take effect that day at 16:30 UTC (11:30 am CST) for the Day 1 Convective Outlook and will also apply to the Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks.
The main goal of this update is to provide the public, meteorologists, and emergency management with more information about the potential intensity of severe weather in the Big Country, not just its probability.
What is staying the same?
First, the categories of familiar returns are not changing. Terms you typically hear, such as Marginal (1/5), Mild (2/5), Improved (3/5), Moderate (4/5) and High (5/5), will still be used in the same way and should appear just as often as before the update. These categories will still describe the overall potential for severe weather impacts in the Big Country.
What is changing?
With this update, we can expect the intensity information. There will be no addition of “conditional intensity” information. This means that the SPC will communicate the severity of any potential weather event.
Here’s an example:
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If a tornado forms, how strong can it be?
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If damaging winds occur, how intense could those gusts be?
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If it does snow, how big can it be?
This new intensity information will now appear on the individual hazard charts for tornadoes, wind and hail. We will share those updates with you.
Introducing Conditional Intensity Groups (CIGs)
From March, the SPC will now display intensity using three levels called Condition Intensity Groups (CIGs). They may also be called “Levels of Intensity.”
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Intensity Level 1 (CIG1): Severe lower end intensity
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Intensity Level 2 (CIG2): Stronger and more impactful severe weather
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Intensity Level 3 (CIG3): The most intense and potentially dangerous severe weather
For Hail, it will use two intensity levels instead of three.
It is important to note that these intensity levels are all conditional. There is no guarantee that severe weather will occur when these levels are issued; provide descriptions of what might happen if this happens.
These intensity levels will replace the current “SIGN” (significant) label.
Visual Changes on Outlook Graphics
This coming March, viewers may also notice a cleaner look to the SPC graphics. Some text labels will move from directly on the map to the legend, making the maps easier to read. While the appearance of these charts will change, the meaning of the prospect categories will remain the same.
Extended Wind Probabilities
Another change is the addition of higher wind probabilities. The SPC is now adding wind probability levels of 75% and 90%, allowing meteorologists/forecasters to better highlight areas with a very high probability of damaging winds.
How the Categories Are Still Determined
Even with all the upcoming updates, the Storm Prediction Center says the way probabilities and intensity are combined to produce the final categorical outlook is designed to closely match historical practices. This means that while we will see more information, the general outlook will feel and look familiar and consistent with what you have seen before.
In general, these SPC outlooks will provide more detail on the severity of potential severe weather while maintaining the same categories that the public already knows. This additional information is designed to improve understanding, preparedness and decision-making ahead of severe weather events in the Big Country.
As we approach March 3rd, we will monitor the website for further updates and information and will keep you all informed.
Stay aware of the weather and be sure to tune in here for updates from your Big Country Storm Team.
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