By Greg Torode and Yimou Lee
HONG KONG/TAIPEI, Jan 9 (Reuters) – Some Chinese online users are calling for a Venezuela-style lightning strike for Taiwan’s leaders in a prelude to taking over the island, but analysts, scholars and security officials say China’s modernizing military is far from finished.
In Taiwan, they say, China’s military has an adversary that has prepared for years against a “decapitation operation” on its leaders, in addition to extensive air defenses and radar capabilities, as well as probable support from the United States and its allies.
Although China has been acquiring advanced weapons for years, questions remain about the capabilities of its People’s Liberation Army to use them effectively, as well as a command structure to bring them together in combat.
“Once such an operation runs into trouble, it will quickly escalate into a full-scale conflict, with extremely high political and military risk,” said Chen Kuan-ting, a Taiwan Democratic People’s Party lawmaker.
Taiwan’s layered air defenses and early warning systems meant that any airstrike or special operations infiltration effort would risk being detected as it crossed the Taiwan Strait, predicting escalation, he added.
The United States demonstrated its forces’ battle-tested air dominance with last weekend’s operation to extract Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife.
His military controlled the skies with stealth fighters, jets that jammed enemy defenses and stealthy reconnaissance drones and satellites that gave commanders real-time intelligence.
In contrast, the PLA “still has clear gaps in the real experience of joint operations, electromagnetic and electronic warfare capabilities, and actual combat validation of high-risk missions,” Chen said.
China’s defense ministry offered no immediate response to faxed questions from Reuters.
CHINA HAS NOT RULED OUT A FORCE TO TAKE TAIWAN
China, which claims Taiwan as its territory, has not ruled out using force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan denies China’s claims.
“Operationally, while the PLA in recent times is trying to keep up with force integration, it’s still baby steps compared to what the Americans have been accumulating for decades,” said Singapore-based security scholar Collin Koh.
Taiwan is determined to defend its sovereignty and strengthen its defense, President Lai Ching-te said last month, after Beijing fired rockets at Taiwan as part of its latest military exercises.
The exercises across Taiwan – the most extensive to date – were accompanied by strong messages from Chinese officials and the military.
“Any external forces that try to intervene in the Taiwan issue or meddle in China’s internal affairs will surely smash their bloody heads against the iron walls of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army,” China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said in a statement.
In October, Lai unveiled a multi-layered air defense system called “T-Dome”.
It is thought to be similar to Israel’s “Iron Dome”, with a more efficient and “sensor-to-shooter” mechanism for a higher kill rate that integrates weapons from Sky Bow missiles developed by Taiwan to HIMARS rocket systems supplied by the United States.
In July, Taiwan’s military held a drill to protect Taipei’s main airport from hostile landings, deploying stinger rockets and portable tanks.
THE MADURO EXTRACTION INSPIRES XI
While military attachés say China has war-gaming extraction operations in Taipei in a wide range of military options to take control of Taiwan, some Chinese online users have taken the US action in Venezuela as inspiration.
“The situation in Venezuela has provided us with a solution for the unification of Taiwan,” said one user on the X-like microblogging site Weibo.
“First use special operations to arrest Lai Ching-te, then immediately announce the takeover of Taiwan, issue new identity cards … and achieve a quick and decisive victory.”
Chen, who sits on Taiwan’s parliament’s foreign affairs and defense committee, dismissed the remarks as “fantasy” and other analysts said any such attempt would quickly face hard military realities.
China had added aircraft to replicate platforms such as Boeing’s EA-18G Growler electronic warfare jet and Northrop Grumman’s E-2D Advanced Hawkeye command and early warning aircraft, but their precise capabilities had yet to be delineated, Koh said.
With the ruling Communist Party still playing a role in the PLA’s command structure, there are still doubts about its effectiveness, added Koh, who is with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
“A decentralized command and control hierarchy is essential; enabling field commanders to exercise the initiative needed to cope with the fluid, evolving and uncertain nature of military operations as events unfold,” Koh said.
Despite any perceived shortcomings of the PLA, Taiwan’s leaders are taking no chances, however.
“We don’t have the capital to take them lightly,” said a senior Taiwanese security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the military issues are sensitive.
“After all, in light of this painful and shocking experience, China will also look for all kinds of ways to overcome these problems.”
(Reporting by Greg Torode in Hong Kong and Yimou Lee in Taipei; Additional reporting by Laurie Chen, Tiffany Le and the Beijing newsroom; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)