Most of us have a way of taking the oceans for granted. A place to surf, perhaps, or to enjoy other water sports, or simply admire while sitting on the beach. Those who make their living in much harsher ocean conditions feel quite differently, however, and so do climate scientists, who warn that the Atlantic Ocean may reach a critical point from which it will be impossible to recover. Although we often think of the ocean as separate and distinct from life on land, the thing to remember is that about 71% of the planet is covered in water, the vast majority of which is ocean water. The Atlantic Ocean, the second largest on Earth, covers 41.1 million square miles, about one-fifth of the planet’s surface. This is why an aircraft carrier takes so long to cross the Atlantic, and it also makes it a critical barometer and provider of life on Earth.
Tragically, its role in safeguarding that life is increasingly endangered by climate change. A study by René M. van Westen et al., published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences in November 2025, sounds the alarm: “The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is expected to weaken or even collapse under anthropogenic climate change.” Humanity, according to the report, is causing the AMOC, a system of currents that the Met Office compares to a “conveyor belt” that regulates ocean water temperature, to deteriorate. The study created several potential scenarios to detail what could happen if this system were lost, and the possible impact on life on Earth in a broad sense is chilling to think about. Let’s take a closer look at the AMOC and what the impact of climate change potentially means for Earth.
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The nature and critical role of the AMOC
View of Earth from space. – UrbanArtr/Shutterstock
There is no underestimating the role that the ocean and sea creatures play in reducing the impact of global temperature changes. In fact, the United Nations notes that “the ocean generates 50 percent of the oxygen we need, absorbs 30 percent of all carbon dioxide emissions and captures 90 percent of the excess heat generated by these emissions.” The AMOC is a system of water currents that regulates the temperature of the oceans by ensuring that warmer water, which is saltier and less dense, and cooler water, which is lower below the surface and more dense, move as expected.
Upwelling, which is the process by which the coastal wind blows the warm water near the surface so that the cold waters replace them and bring their nutrients to the surface, occurs so that the waters rise to the surface and descend to the bottom in cycles. This maintains a strong filtration of nutrients such as phosphates while also allowing the tiny creatures that live in these waters, such as phytoplankton, to continue to thrive in the area and therefore serve as a vital part of the food chain. It’s a delicate balance that we sometimes don’t think about, but which is very important to keeping the oceans and the wider planet healthy. The changing climate is, unsurprisingly, having an effect on this process as well. Changes in temperature mean that ocean waters remain warm, and this can have an impact on the AMOC process, which revolves around the interaction between warmer and cooler waters. With various aspects of climate change, it is impossible to put a definite timetable for the events, but it seems inevitable that the AMOC will be negatively affected by the effects of a warming world.
The tipping point for the AMOC, according to the study
Photo of the Atlantic Ocean near the coast of Nantucket…. – Wikimedia Commons / Andywallxyz, resized and cropped, CC BY-SA 4.0.
Tipping points are potential temperature thresholds or other levels of specific change, beyond which problems appear to be accelerating beyond potential mitigation. The Met Office notes, for example, that the decline of the Amazon rainforest may reach a point where it cannot regrow (because the forest’s trees add moisture to the atmosphere which encourages rain), and this is exactly the kind of warning being issued about the AMOC by researchers. Researchers at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute investigated the potential repercussions if the AMOC effect were to decrease drastically, or if it even disappeared altogether. In the first instance, states the study, “precipitation rates over Europe are expected to decrease under a collapse of the AMOC, potentially affecting the European hydroclimate.”
A reduction in rainfall would be another step towards a more dangerous and uncertain future, which would certainly make for hotter summers and a greater risk of drought and lack of food. As would be expected from one of the world’s largest oceans as well, this effect would not be a localized European issue. The study adds that the AMOC “effectively cools the Southern Hemisphere and warms the Northern Hemisphere,” so if it were to be significantly reduced or even disappear, it would have global repercussions. The loss of one means of temperature regulation naturally means more pressure on the existing ones, which aggravates the global problem. The researchers note that the process unfolds differently under different modeled scenarios and that degradation and its associated potential impact do not unfold quickly. Scientists suggest that it will not be this century, but after 2100 that the impact will be felt. There is potential to reverse some damage from climate change, but we still don’t know what the future holds for the AMOC.
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Read the original article on SlashGear.