CONAKRY, Guinea (AP) — Guineans are voting Sunday to elect a new president in the country’s first election since a 2021 coup, as analysts say a weakened opposition will result in a likely victory for junta leader Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya.
Sunday’s election is the culmination of a transition process that began four years ago after Doumbouya fired President Alpha Condé. The junta leader continued to suppress the main opposition and dissent, critics say, leaving him with no major opposition among the eight other candidates in the race.
Despite Guinea’s rich mineral resources – including as the world’s largest exporter of bauxite, used to make aluminum – more than half of its 15 million people are experiencing record levels of poverty and food insecurity, according to the World Food Programme.
“This vote is the hope of young people, especially for us unemployed people,” said Idrissa Camara, an 18-year-old resident of Conakry, who said he has been unemployed since he graduated from university five years ago. “I am forced to do odd jobs to survive. I hope that this vote will improve the standard of living and the quality of life in Guinea,” he added.
The election is the latest such vote among African countries that have seen a sharp increase in coups in recent years. At least 10 countries on the young continent have seen soldiers seize power by force after accusing elected leaders of failing to provide good governance and security for citizens.
“This election will open a new page in Guinea’s history and mark the country’s return to the league of nations,” said Guinean political analyst Aboubacar Sidiki Diakité. “Doumbouya is undoubtedly the favorite in this presidential election because the main opposition political parties have been sidelined and the Directorate General of Elections, the body that oversees the presidential election, is under government supervision,” he added.
In addition to the weakened opposition, activists and rights groups say that Guinea since the coup has seen civil society leaders silenced, critics kidnapped and the press censored. More than 50 political parties were disbanded last year in a move the authorities claimed was to “clean the political chessboard” despite widespread criticism.
A total of nine candidates are contesting the election, and Doumbouya’s closest challenger is Yero Baldé of the little-known Guinea Democratic Front party, who was education minister under Condé.
Two opposition candidates, former prime minister Lansana Kouyaté and former government minister Ousmane Kaba, were excluded on technical grounds while long-time opposition leaders Cellou Dalein Diallo and Sidya Toure were forced into exile.
While Baldé based his campaign on promises of governance reforms, anti-corruption efforts and economic growth, Doumbouya built his around major infrastructure projects and reforms launched since he took power four years ago.
The junta’s most important project was the Simandou iron ore project, a 75% Chinese-owned mega-mining project in the world’s largest iron ore deposit that began production last month after decades of delays.
Authorities say a national development plan linked to the Simandou project aims to create tens of thousands of jobs and diversify the economy through investments in agriculture, education, transport, technology and health.
“In four years, he (Doumbouya) connected the youth of Guinea to information and communication technologies,” said Mamadama Touré, a high school student wearing a T-shirt with Doumbouya’s image in the capital of Conakry, as he cited digital skills training programs established by the authorities.
Around 6.7 million registered voters are expected to cast their vote in around 24,000 polling stations throughout the country, with the results expected within 48 hours. There will be a run-off if no candidate wins a majority of the votes.
In Conakry, 22-year-old student Issatou Bah said he is still undecided about whether to vote in the election.
“This is the third time I have voted in Guinea, hoping that things will change. But nothing has changed,” said Bah, adding that he hopes the election will improve “this country that has everything but struggles to leave.”