Obama’s former top economic adviser says he feels ‘a little bad’ for Trump because gas prices are low, but consumer confidence is still down

As President Donald Trump struggles to address Americans’ growing concerns about affordability, he’s gotten some sympathy from one of former President Barack Obama’s top economists.

Jason Furman, a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government and former president of the Council of Economic Advisers under Obama, said CNBCWednesday’s “Squawk Box” pessimistic consumers ignored gas prices that remained affordable, making Trump’s job of addressing the affordability crisis more difficult.

Gas prices in December marked the lowest they’ve been all year, according to data from the AAA motorcycle club, with unleaded gasoline $0.18 cheaper nationally this year compared to last. National average prices hit their lowest on Monday, hitting $2.85 a gallon. That didn’t stop consumer confidence from falling to its lowest level since April, and approval ratings indicating that more Americans don’t agree with how Trump is handling the economy.

“I was devastated,” Furman said. “When you’re in government, they tell you, politically, the one price that matters is the price of gasoline. That’s the one price that was big this year. And I feel a little bad for President Trump who doesn’t get any credit for that.”

Trump continued to offer his own mixed signals about the affordability crisis, including saying in a primetime address last week he inherited an economic “mess” from the Biden administration, offering to reduce checks for millions of military personnel for housing supplements, while at the same time calling the economy the strongest it’s ever been.

According to Furman, Trump also has a bit of a tough crowd: Consumers were concerned about inflation and the price of groceries, which have risen nearly 30% over the past five years, making it harder to ease economic anxieties, even when there are other optimistic signs.

“Consumers are just into this kind of, whatever the highest price is, that’s the price they’re going to focus on and be upset about,” he said. “And this is a really difficult problem to solve economically or politically.”

Conflicting economic indicators extend beyond prices, Furman said. The United States saw the strongest economic growth in two years last quarter with GDP growth of 4.3%, which exceeded the estimates of past analysts. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, well above last November’s 4.2% and above 4%, which is considered reasonable.

“If all you had were the jobs numbers, we’d all be doing our recession probabilities right now—Is it 30%? Is it 50%? Is it 70%?” Furman asked. “But then we have this GDP growth number, and that just gives us the probability of our boom.”

Unlike many economists who see a skewed, K-shaped economy of the rich getting richer while the poor get poorer, Furman isn’t so sure. He noted that aside from some consistently low prices, such as gas, wage growth remains strong, a metric associated with increased spending and productivity. To be sure, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Fed indicates wage growth for the lowest-paid quartile of Americans has gone from a high of 7.5% in 2022 to about 3.5% today, the lowest in 10 years.

“I’m less convinced about this K-shaped recovery than other people,” Furman said. “Everybody wants prices to be 25% lower. Nobody wants their wages to be 25% lower.”

Other economists, such as KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk, see the connection between economic growth, rising unemployment, and the economy in a K shape. Swonk said Fortune strong GDP growth indeed reflected a K-shaped economy where—in addition to resilient consumer spending and soaring corporate profits—businesses have learned to grow without hiring, padding margins without expanding their team, a trend that could be exacerbated by job-displacing AI.

“We’re seeing most of the productivity gains we’re seeing right now as really just the residue of companies holding back on hiring and doing more with less,” she said.

This story originally appeared on Fortune.com

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