Two NATO nation’s intelligence services suspect that Russia is developing a new anti-satellite weapon to target Elon Musk’s Starlink constellation with destructive orbital clouds of shrapnel, with the aim of curbing the West’s space superiority that has helped Ukraine on the battlefield.
Intelligence findings seen by The Associated Press say the so-called “area effect” weapon would seek to flood Starlink’s orbits with hundreds of thousands of high-density pellets, potentially disabling multiple satellites at once but also risking catastrophic collateral damage to other orbiting systems.
Analysts who have not seen the findings say they doubt such a weapon could work without causing uncontrollable chaos in space for companies and countries, including Russia and its ally China, which rely on thousands of orbiting satellites for communications, defense and other vital needs.
Such repercussions, including risks to its own space systems, could dissuade Moscow from deploying or deploying such a weapon, analysts said.
“I don’t buy it. Like, I really don’t,” said Victoria Samson, a space security specialist at the Secure World Foundation who leads the Colorado-based nongovernmental organization’s annual study of anti-satellite systems. “I would be very surprised, frankly, if they were to do something like that.”
But the commander of the Space Division of the Canadian military, Brig. Gen. Christopher Horner, said that such Russian work cannot be ruled out in view of the previous allegations of the United States that Russia was also pursuing an indiscriminate nuclear weapon, based in space.
“I can not say that I have been informed about that type of system. But it is not plausible,” he said. “If the reporting about the nuclear weapons system is accurate and that they are ready to develop this and ready to go for that goal, well it doesn’t strike me as shocking that something a little less than that, but equally harmful, is in their development wheelhouse.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not respond to messages from the AP seeking comment. Russia has previously called for United Nations efforts to halt the orbital deployment of weapons and President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow has no intention of using nuclear space weapons.
A weapon has multiple targets
The intelligence findings were shown to the AP on the condition that the services involved were not identified and the news organization could not independently verify the conclusions of the findings.
The US Space Force did not respond to emailed questions. The Space Command of the French military said in a statement to the AP that it could not comment on the findings but said, “We can inform you that Russia, in recent years, is multiplying irresponsible, dangerous, and even hostile actions in space.”
Russia views Starlink in particular as a grave threat, the findings indicate. The thousands of low-orbit satellites were crucial to Ukraine’s survival against a full-scale invasion by Russia, now in its fourth year.
Starlink’s high-speed internet service is used by Ukrainian forces for battlefield communications, weapons targeting and other roles and by civilians and government officials where Russian attacks have affected communications.
Russian officials have repeatedly warned that commercial satellites serving the Ukrainian military could be legitimate targets. This month, Russia said it had fielded a new ground-based missile system, the S-500, capable of hitting targets in low orbit.
Unlike a missile that Russia tested in 2021 to destroy a defunct Cold War-era satellite, the new weapon under development will target multiple Starlinks at once, with pellets possibly released from formations of small satellites yet to be launched, intelligence findings say.
Canada’s Horner said it’s hard to see how a cloud of pellets could gather to hit just Starlink and that the debris from such an attack could “get out of control quickly.”
“You blow up a box full of BBs,” he said. Doing so “covers an entire orbital regime and takes out every Starlink satellite and every other satellite that’s in a similar regime. And I think that’s the part that’s incredibly troubling.”
The system is possibly only experimental
The findings seen by the AP did not say when Russia might be able to deploy such a system nor give details on whether it has been tested or how far the research is believed to be.
The system is in active development and information about the expected deployment time is too sensitive to share, according to an official familiar with the findings and other related intelligence that the AP has not seen. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the non-public findings.
Such Russian research may be merely experimental, Samson said.
“I wouldn’t go through any scientists … to build something like this because it’s an interesting thought experiment and they think, you know, ‘Maybe at some point we can get our government to pay for it,'” she said.
Samson suggested that the specter of a supposed new Russian threat could also be an effort to provoke an international response.
“Many times the people pushing these ideas are doing it because they want the US side to build something like that or … to justify greater spending on counterspace capabilities or use it for a more hawkish approach on Russia,” she said.
“I’m not saying this is what’s happening with this,” added Samson. “But it has been known to happen that people take these crazy arguments and use them.”
Small pellets may remain undetected
Intelligence findings say the pellets would be so small – just millimeters across – that they would evade detection by ground- and space-based systems that scan for space objects, which could make it difficult to pin the blame for any attack on Moscow.
Clayton Swope, who specializes in space security and weapons at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a security and policy think tank based in Washington, DC, said that if “the pellets can’t be tracked, that complicates things” but “people understand that.”
“If satellites start winking out with damage, I guess you can put two and two together,” he said.
Exactly how much destruction small pellets can do is not clear. In November, a suspected impact from a small piece of debris was enough to damage a Chinese spacecraft intended to bring three astronauts back to Earth.
“Most of the damage is probably done to the solar panels because they’re probably the most fragile part” of the satellites, Swope said. “That would be enough, however, to damage a satellite and probably bring it offline.”
A ‘weapon of fear’ can threaten chaos
After such an attack, pellets and debris would eventually fall back to Earth, possibly damaging other orbiting systems on their way down, analysts say.
Starlink orbits about 550 kilometers (340 miles) above the planet. China’s Tiangong space station and the International Space Station operate in lower orbits, “so both face risks,” according to Swope.
The spatial chaos such a weapon could cause could allow Moscow to threaten its adversaries without needing to use it, Swope said.
“It definitely feels like a weapon of fear, looking for some kind of deterrence or something,” he said.
Samson said the disadvantages of an indiscriminate pellet weapon could lead Russia down such a path.
“They’ve invested a tremendous amount of time and money and manpower to be, you know, a space power,” she said.
The use of such a weapon “would have effectively cut off the space for them as well,” said Samson. “I don’t know that they would be willing to give up that much.”
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Emma Burrows in London contributed to this report.