Will Shiba Inu Die In 2026? Data on the Chain Hold the Answer

Shiba Inu price has had a rough year. The token is down almost 70% year over year and more than 90% from its peak. With meme coin interest waning, many now question whether SHIB is dying a slow death.

That concern grew after CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said meme coins are “dead,” citing crumbling dominance and shrinking speculation. On the surface, Shiba Inu seems to fit that narrative. But on-chain data adds more layers to the story.

The wider meme coin market has clearly weakened. CryptoQuant data shows that the dominance of meme coins has declined to low levels in early 2024, indicating reduced speculative activity in altcoins.

Shiba Inu reflects that tendency. The price remained below long-term resistance, and the rallies failed to hold. Smart wallets, which follow experienced and active traders, have steadily reduced SHIB’s exposure throughout the year.

This suggests that traders are not positioning for short-term rebounds. Simply put, informed traders are not relying on price increases, let alone rallies.

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A recent piece of data on derivatives reinforces this view. Over the past 30 days, most perpetual futures traders have reduced exposure. Outside of the largest addresses, leverage remains light. This shows that traders are cautious and do not expect a fast or explosive movement.

In simple terms, the speculation has dried up. This supports the idea that meme coins no longer lead the market as they once did. But speculation is only one side of the equation.

Despite weak price action, the long-term behavior tells a different story.

The number of Shiba Inu holders, which tracks how many wallets hold SHIB, continued to increase throughout the year. It started near 1.46 million and grew to about 1.54 million. Growth has not been smooth, but the trend remains positive, even when prices have fallen sharply.

The data on whales is more impressive.

Over the past year, large holders have increased their SHIB balances by approximately 249%, according to the previously shared image. The balances of the mega-whales increased approximately 28.5%. At the same time, exchange balances, which show how many tokens sit on trading platforms, decreased by almost 22%. Fewer coins on exchanges usually mean less immediate selling pressure.

This trend has accelerated recently. Over the past 30 days alone, whale balances have increased by more than 61%, while most foreign exchange outflows have occurred during the same period.

This does not sound like panic or abandonment. It looks like a slow build-up.

However, it is important to note that derivatives traders are not merging. Outside of the main addresses, leverage positioning remains silent. The whales appear early, but are not aggressive.

SHIB’s price action is still fragile, but not hopeless.

On the three-day chart, Shiba Inu is trading inside a long-term falling wedge, a pattern that often becomes bullish if the price breaks higher. Recently, a major sign appeared.

Between December 3 and December 12, Shiba Inu price made a lower low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, made a higher low. This bullish divergence suggests that selling pressure is weakening, raising the likelihood of a trend reversal.

Key levels are now more important than narratives.

The first resistance sits near $0.0000092. A clean break above this level marks a breakout from the upper trend line that the price has hit since September. If confirmed, the next resistance zones are located near $0.000010, $0.000011, and $0.000014, which align with the last major swing high. Note that only a break at the level beyond $0.0000092 can completely invalidate the “dead currency” claims.

On the downside, the structure weakens below $0.0000075. A sustained move below that level would invalidate the reversal setup and reopen downside risk.

Shiba Inu is not dead, but it is not healthy either. Speculation is over, traders remain cautious, and quick gains are unlikely. Still, the increase in the number of keepers, the accumulation of heavy whales, and the declining exchange balances suggest that the chain is far from being abandoned.

If an altcoin cycle returns, Shiba Inu still has a path to revival. For now, it remains in survival mode, awaiting stronger confirmation.

Read original story Shiba Inu Will Die In 2026? Data on Chain Hold the Answer by Ananda Banerjee at beincrypto.com